Introduction

One of the key ideas of Fossil Future is that when we are evaluating fossil fuels and alternatives, we need to consider the full context of facts.

I am extremely critical of many leading thinkers and institutions for “catastrophizing” the negative side-effects of fossil fuels, while ignoring fossil fuels’ unique, massive, and desperately-needed benefits to human flourishing.

Here are just some of the “surprising facts” I have learned about fossil fuels, environment, and climate by considering the full context. These are facts that almost no expert researchers will dispute or deny—but yet you never hear about them.

Energy

Fossil fuels are uniquely cost-effective: the only form of energy that can provide every type of energy need (electricity, mobility, industrial heat, residential heat) at low cost, on-demand, for billions of people. (Page 20)
After 100 years of vigorous competition from alternatives, fossil fuels provide 80% of the world’s energy, including over 90% of the world’s transportation energy—and are growing.1 (Page 196)
Only 1/5th of the world uses what Americans would consider a modest amount of energy. 3 billion people use less electricity than a typical American refrigerator.2 (Page 26)

Alternatives to fossil fuels

Nuclear energy is the safest form of energy ever created.3 (Page 60)
Nuclear energy is the cleanest form of energy ever created. (Page 60)
Nuclear energy has become many times more expensive even though the raw material prices haven’t increased and the knowledge of how to produce nuclear energy efficiently has improved.4 (Page 62)
There is no low-cost, scalable way of capturing CO₂ in existence or on the horizon.5 (Page 237)

The anti-fossil fuel movement

The anti-fossil fuel “green” movement claims to want to lower CO₂ emissions at all costs, yet opposes the two most proven, cost-effective ways of lowering CO₂ emissions: nuclear energy and hydroelectric energy. (Page 86)
Contrary to the idea that today’s designated climate experts have been “too conservative” in their predictions about climate change, they have actually been far too catastrophic—predicting a dramatic increase in climate-related death, when in reality climate-related deaths ended up plummeting.6 (Page 42)
Climate-related disaster deaths have decreased 98% over the last century. (Page 42)
Many leading “studies” claiming to prove climate catastrophe totally ignore human beings’ incredible ability to adapt to and master negative climate changes. (Pages 84, 101-102, 247)

The environmental and climate impacts of fossil fuels

Despite claims that the world is “too hot,” cold-related deaths far exceed heat-related deaths.7 (Page 262)
The “greenhouse effect” is a diminishing effect: new CO2 emissions have less of a warming impact than earlier CO₂ emissions.8 (Page 325)
The global climate system is near historic lows in CO₂ and temperature.9 (Pages 334-335)
We have no near-term mechanism of reaching even one fourth the historical high of CO₂.10 (Page 321)
Life on Earth thrived at far higher CO₂ levels and temperatures in the past.11 (Page 322)
Planetary warming is concentrated in colder parts of the Earth—it is not truly global.12 (Page 324)

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You’ll be able to learn more about these facts, and dozens of other surprising facts, in Fossil Future—which has been endorsed by many top energy thinkers. Here’s a detailed preview.

Energy Talking Points by Alex Epstein

A detailed preview of Fossil Future

On April 19th, my new book Fossil Future will be released by Penguin Random House. Fossil Future systematically analyzes the world’s energy, environmental, and climate choices from a human flourishing perspective—and concludes definitively that, as the subtitle of the book says: …

7 months ago · 9 likes · 5 comments · Alex Epstein

Here’s why and how to preorder Fossil Future.

Energy Talking Points by Alex Epstein

Fossil Future preorder info: bonuses and bulk discounts

A request: help prevent supply shortages by preordering Fossil Future If you know you are going to buy my book Fossil Future, please preorder it now. I know preordering can be annoying, but it will help convince my publisher to do a very big first printing--which is necessary to avoid massive shortages…

7 months ago · 1 like · Alex Epstein

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EnergyTalkingPoints.com: Hundreds of concise, powerful, well-referenced talking points on energy, environmental, and climate issues.
My books: The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels and Fossil Future (comes out 4/19/22).
Speaking and media inquiries

1

International Energy Agency - Data and statistics

U.S. Energy Information Administration - International Energy Outlook 2016, Chapter 8: Transportation Sector Energy Consumption

2

Robert Bryce - A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations

3

World Nuclear Association - Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors

4

World Nuclear Association - Nuclear Power in the USA

5

Global emissions are about 35 billion metric tonnes per year.
Global Carbon Atlas - CO₂ Emissions 2020

Current capturing capacities are about 40 million tonnes annually.
International Energy Agency - Carbon capture, utilisation and storage

Estimates for U.S. CO₂ use in enhanced oil recovery show an optimistic potential for 20
billion tons of CO₂ used over several decades, a fraction of total U.S. emissions over that
time period (6.5 billion tons annually today). This would also require greatly expanding
oil production and most of the CO₂ used today is not from captured emissions but
natural sources.
Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce - CO₂ Enhanced Oil Recovery

6

Indur M. Goklany - Wealth and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010

For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes (extreme temperature, drought, flood, storms, wildfires) declined 98%--from an average of 247 per year during the 1920s to 2.5 in per year during the 2010s.
Data on disaster deaths come from EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium – www.emdat.be (D. Guha-Sapir).
Population estimates for the 1920s from the Maddison Database 2010 come from the Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Faculty of Economics and Business at University of Groningen. For years not shown, population is assumed to have grown at a steady rate.
Population estimates for the 2010s come from World Bank Data.

7

Gasparrini et al. (2015) - Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient
Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study

Qi Zhao et al. (2021) - Global, Regional, and National Burden of Mortality Associated with Non-Optimal Ambient Temperatures from 2000 to 2019: A Three-Stage Modeling Study

8

Myhre et. al (1998) - New Estimates of Radiative Forcing Due to Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases

Etminan et al. (2016) - Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

9

“The best estimate of CO₂ concentration in the global atmosphere 540 million years ago is 7,000 ppm, with a wide margin of error.”
Patrick Moore - The Positive Impact of Human CO₂ Emissions on the Survival of Life on Earth

10

IPCC 2013 - AR5, Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables, Table AII.2.1c: Anthropogenic Total CO₂ Emissions (PgC yr— ), Table AII.4.1: CO₂ Abundance (ppm), columns for RCP8.5

11

Patrick Moore - The Positive Impact of Human CO₂ Emissions on the Survival of Life on Earth

12

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Climate Change Rule of Thumb: Cold ‘Things’ Warming Faster Than Warm Things

Energy Talking Points by Alex Epstein

17 surprising facts from Fossil Future