A detailed preview of Fossil Future

"Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas—Not Less" is a systematic analysis of our energy future from a human flourishing perspective

Jan 30, 2022

On April 19th, my new book Fossil Future will be released by Penguin Random House.

Fossil Future systematically analyzes the world’s energy, environmental, and climate choices from a human flourishing perspective—and concludes definitively that, as the subtitle of the book says: “Global human flourishing requires more, oil, coal, and natural gas—not less.”

Here’s a detailed preview of the Fossil Future’s systematic analysis—every part, chapter, section, and subsection.

Over the next two months I’ll be publicly sharing some sections of Fossil Future before the release date. Let me know in the comments which sections you want me to release.

Part 1: Framework

Chapter 1: Ignoring Benefits

Save the World With…Fossil Fuels?
Questioning the "Expert" Moral Case for Eliminating Fossil Fuels
How to Know When the "Experts" Are Wrong
- How Research Works
- How Synthesis Can Go Wrong
- How Dissemination Can Go Wrong
- How Evaluation Can Go Wrong
The Unique, Massive, and Desperately Needed Benefits of Fossil Fuels
- Fossil Fuels Are a Uniquely Cost-Effective Source of Energy
- Cost-Effective Energy Is Essential to Human Flourishing
- Billions of People Are Suffering and Dying for Lack of Cost-Effective Energy
Do Our Designated Experts Really Ignore the Benefits of Fossil Fuels?
Ignoring the Benefits of All Cost-Effective Energy
- Supporting Efforts to Eliminate Cost-Effective Nuclear Energy
- Supporting Efforts to Eliminate Cost-Effective Hydro Energy
- Indifference to “Green” Opposition to Solar and Wind
- Ignoring Energy Experts
A Broken Knowledge System
- Our Knowledge System Might Be Dramatically Underestimating Our Ability to Use Cost-Effective Energy from Fossil Fuels to Cope with Its Climate Side-Effects
- Our Knowledge System’s Apparent Hostility Toward Cost-Effective Energy Could Be Driving It to Overstate Fossil Fuels’ Negative Side-Effects

Chapter 2: Catastrophizing Side-Effects

Our Knowledge System’s Real Track Record on Climate: 180 Degrees Wrong
The Error of Catastrophizing
The “Expert” Prediction of Catastrophic Global Cooling
Catastrophizing Resources
Catastrophizing Environmental Quality
Catastrophizing Nuclear Energy
An Uncorrected Failure
Deadly Prescriptions
Our Missing Protection
Understanding Both Our Knowledge System’s Energy Failure and Ours

Chapter 3: The Anti-Impact Framework

An Anti-Human Moral Goal and Standard
Eliminating Human Impact
How Our Knowledge System’s Anti-Impact Goal Drives it to Oppose Cost-Effective Energy
- On the Goal of Eliminating Human Impact, the Significant Impacts of Cost-Effective Energy’s Development Are Immoral and in Need of Elimination
- On the Goal of Eliminating Human Impact, the Significant Impacts of Cost-Effective Energy’s Side-Effects Are Immoral and in Need of Elimination
How Our Knowledge System’s Anti-Impact Goal Drives it to Ignore the Benefits of Cost-Effective Energy
How Our Knowledge System’s Anti-Impact “Delicate Nurturer” Assumption Drives it to Catastrophize the Side-Effects of Cost-Effective Energy
Replacing the Anti-Impact Framework with the Human Flourishing Framework
- The Goal: Human Flourishing
- Pro-Human Environmental Terminology
- The Wild Potential Premise
- Full-Context Evaluation
The Human Flourishing Framework versus the Anti-Impact Framework on CO2 Emissions
My Project

Part 2: Benefits

Chapter 4: Our Unnaturally Livable Fossil-Fueled World

The Full Benefits of Continuing Fossil Fuel Use
Our Knowledge System’s Trivialization of Cost-Effective Energy
What is a "Livable Planet"?
- Looking at the Livability of the Planet from a Human Flourishing Perspective
- Being Open to Ways in Which Fossil Fuels Profoundly Benefit the “Livability of the Planet”
The Hydrocarbons and Human Flourishing Hockey Sticks
The Problem of Human Weakness on a Naturally Deficient and Dangerous Planet
The Solution: Cost-Effective Machine Labor and Machine Food
Humanity’s Unprecedented, Fossil Fueled Productivity and Progress
- Powering ultra-cost-effective machine labor
- Enormous Amounts of Human Mental Labor Freed Up by Ultra-Cost-Effective Machine Labor
- Super-Specialization
- Rapid Innovation
- Fossil Fuel Materials
An Unnaturally Nourishing World
An Unnaturally Safe World—Unprecedented Shelter
An Unnaturally Safe World—Unprecedented Sanitation
An Unnaturally Safe World—Unprecedented Medical Care
An Unnaturally Fulfilling World
- Fulfilling Productive Time
- Fulfilling Nourishment and Protection
- Fulfilling Leisure Time
Fossil Fuels’ Increasingly Overwhelmed, Reduced, and Neutralized Negative Side-Effects
- Fossil Fuel Energy’s Side-Effects Are Overwhelmed by Its Benefits
- Benefits Overwhelming Side-Effects: The Case of Coal in the 1800s
- Fossil Fuel Energy’s Side-Effects Are Largely Reduced by Its Benefits
- Fossil Fuel Energy’s Side-Effects Are Increasingly Neutralized
  by Its Benefits
Our Knowledge System’s Pseudoscientific Benefit Denial via “Studies” and “Externality” Claims
- Benefit-Denying Negative Studies
- Benefit-Denying “Externality” Claims

Chapter 5: The Unique and Expanding Cost-Effectiveness of Fossil Fuels

The Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of Fossil Fuels Vs. Alternatives in a World That Needs Much More Energy
- More Energy Is Needed to Empower the Unempowered World
- More Energy Is Needed to Further Empower the Empowered World
- More Energy Is Needed for New Types of Empowerment
- Energy Efficiency Does Not Mean We Need Less Energy
What is Fossil Fuels’ Secret Sauce?
Looking at the Full Process of Energy Production
The First Ingredient: The Remarkable Attributes of Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas
- Natural Storage
- Natural Concentration
- Natural Abundance
The Second Ingredient: Generations of Economic Innovation and Achievement
The Epic Replacement Challenges for Fossil Fuel Heat and Fossil Fuel Mobility
- Ultra-Cost-Effective Heat Energy
- Ultra-Cost-Effective Mobile Energy
The Future Cost-Effectiveness of Fossil Fuels

Chapter 6: Alternatives: Distortions versus Reality

What is the True Potential of Alternatives?
The Incredible Claims of Our Anti-Energy Knowledge System
- They Embrace the Anti-Impact, Anti-Flourishing Goal of Reducing Energy Use
- They Insist on “Green” (i.e., “Low-Impact”) Alternatives While Expressing Little Concern about the Anti-Impact Opposition to These Alternatives
- They Deny the Unique Cost-Effectiveness of Fossil Fuels Today
The Current, Denied Reality of Solar and Wind Energy
- The Costs of Diluteness
- The Costs of Intermittency
The True Potential of Solar and Wind Energy
- Denial of the Reality of Today’s Current, Small-Scale Solar and Wind Electricity
- Reliance on Nonexistent Economic Achievements Such as Ultra-
  Cost-Effective Multiday Electricity Storage
Our Anti-Energy Knowledge System's Phony Enthusiasm for Solar and Wind
The Truth About Biomass
The Truth About Geothermal
The Suppressed Potential of Hydroelectric Energy
The Suppressed Potential of Nuclear Energy
The Truth About Capturing CO2
Continuing Fossil Fuel Use: A Fundamental and Irreplaceable Value

Part 3: Climate Side-Effects

Chapter 7: The Enormous Power of Fossil-Fueled Climate Mastery

How to Evaluate Rising CO2 Levels
- Factoring in the Overall Benefits of Fossil Fuels to Human Flourishing
- The Climate Mastery Benefits That Will Come with Rising CO2 Levels
- The Climate Impacts of Rising CO2 Levels, Understood without Anti-Impact Bias
The Dangerous, Dynamic, and Diverse Global Climate System
- Dangerous
- Diverse
- Dynamic
How Powerful is Fossil-Fueled Climate Mastery?
Mastering Dangerous Temperatures
Mastering Drought
How to Think About Climate Damage
- Damage is significant, but not as significant as deaths
- Damage should be measured as a percentage of wealth or income, not in absolute terms
- Increasing damage can be a rational and safe choice
- Increasing damage can be caused by government bailout policies
- Increasing damage can be caused by anti-impact, anti-mastery policies

Mastering Wildfires
- Reducing Wildfire Fuel Load
- Barrier Building
- Direct Firefighting
Mastering Storms
Mastering Floods and Sea Level Rises
Recognizing Growing Mastery in a World of Climate Mastery Denial

Chapter 8: The Problem of Systemic Climate Distortion

Understanding the Likely Climate Impacts of Rising CO2 Levels
How (Un)trustworthy is the Modern Climate Knowledge System?
The "CO2 Benefit Denial" Distortion
The "Deliberate Overstatement" Distortion
- Punishment of Climate Catastrophe Skepticism
- Equation of Consensus on Some Climate Impact with Consensus on Massively Negative Climate Impact (the 97 Percent Fallacy)
- Deliberately Overstated Report Summaries
- Deliberate Overstatement by Designated Experts for Effect
Finding the Full Range of Minimally-Distorted Expert Assessments
Questions and Standards for Assessing Climate Claims
- They give clear explanations of the evidence for their views rather
  than just invoking authority
- They are precise—not sloppy—with terminology, magnitudes, and probabilities
- They distinguish degrees of known and unknown—in their field and for themselves personally
- They legitimately engage and address competing viewpoints, without
  evading, demonizing, or straw-manning them

Chapter 9: Rising CO2 Levels: The Full Context

The Climate Impacts of Rising CO2 Levels: A Full-Context, Pro-Human Evaluation
The Impossibility of an Unlivable Earth
- The Global Climate System Is Near Historic Lows in CO2 and Temperature
- We Have No Near-Term Mechanism of Reaching Even One Fourth the Historical High of CO2
- Life on Earth Thrived at Far Higher CO2 Levels and Temperatures in the Past
- Planetary Warming Is Concentrated in Colder Parts of the Earth—It Is Not Truly Global
The Diminishing and Mild Greenhouse Effect
The Limited, Masterable, and Speculative Amplified Greenhouse Effect
- Limited
- Masterable
- Highly Speculative
- Even Catastrophist Organizations Like the IPCC Admit That Extreme Climate CO2 Sensitivity Is Highly Speculative
- The Temperature Record Supports a Much More Mild Climate CO2 Sensitivity
- There Are Myriad Ways in Which the Climate Predictors Are
  Inclined and Incentivized to Make Extreme Prediction
What Other Climate Impacts Will Warming Cause?
How Much Will Sea Levels Rise?
Ocean “Acidification”: New “Catastrophe,” Same Old Pattern
- Given That Life Has Flourished When CO2 Levels Were Far Higher, Whatever Change Is Happening to the Oceans Is from Some State Where a Wide Variety of Life Can Flourish to Another State Where a Wide Variety of Life Can Flourish
- The Rate and Consequences of the Change Are Being Wildly, Negatively Distorted by Our Knowledge System
- No Possible Negative Change in the Ocean Is Going to Be Significant Enough to Even Offset the Benefits of CO2 on Land-Based Life, Let Alone the Benefits of Global Empowerment
- There Is a Significant Ability to Master the Oceans That Is Being Dismissed
The Path Forward on Climate: Full Steam Ahead

Part 4: A Flourishing Fossil Future

Chapter 10: Maximizing Flourishing Through Energy Freedom

A Flourishing Fossil Future: Possible But Not Inevitable
- Billions of Newly Empowered People Lifting Themselves Out of Poverty
- Continuing and Accelerating Progress Throughout the World
- An Increasing Ability to Deal with Problems of Every Kind
- Continuing Evolution and Progress in the Realm of Energy, Including Alternatives to Fossil Fuels
Freedom is Fundamental
Protect the Freedom to Trade
Protect the Freedom to Develop
- End All Anti-Development Incentives to the Unempowered World
- End Anti-Impact Permitting Policies
Protect the Freedom to Compete
- Eliminate All Government Preferences, Above All “Green” Preferences
- Where Governments Have a Monopoly, Use the Pro-Human Standard of Cost-Effectiveness
Properly Protect the Freedom From Endangerment
- Protecting Against Abuses of Energy
- Protecting Against Endangering Side-Effects
- Endangerment Criterion 1: Demonstrably and Significantly Harmful
  - The False-Attribution Fallacy
  - The "Artificial" Fallacy
  - The No-Threshold Fallacy
- Endangerment Criterion 2: Reasonably Preventable
- Decriminalize Nuclear Energy
- Establish Local Pollution Standards

Chapter 11: Reframing the Conversation and Arguing to 100

The Seemingly Unstoppable Movement to Eliminate Fossil Fuels
Why I'm Optimistic
The Key to the Anti-Fossil Fuel Movement's Success: Framing the Conversation and Arguing to 100
Fossil Fuel Advocates’ Mistake: Arguing to 0
Is Reframing Actually Possible?
Reframing the Conversation Using the Human Flourishing Framework
The Undeniable Power of Properly-Framed Fundamental Truths
- The Uniquely Cost-Effective Energy We Get from Fossil Fuels Makes the World an Unnaturally Livable Place—Including Unnaturally Safe from Climate—for Billions of People
- The World Is Still a Barely Livable Place for Billions of People Who Lack Cost-Effective Energy
- No Combination of Alternatives, Least of All Unreliable Solar and Wind, Can Replace Fossil Fuels’ Ability to Provide Cost-Effective Energy for the Billions Who Have It and the Billions Who Need It
- Fossil Fuels’ CO2 Emissions Have Contributed to and Will Continue to Contribute to Slow, Masterable, and Often Beneficial Warming as Well as Significant Global Greening—Nothing Resembling a Crisis
The Growing Energy Humanist Movement
The Limitless Power of Sharing
The Benefits of Being an Energy Champion

A request: help prevent supply shortages by preordering Fossil Future

If you know you are going to buy my book Fossil Future, please preorder it now.

I know preordering can be annoying, but it will help convince my publisher to do a very big first printing--which is necessary to avoid massive shortages.

As additional incentive, if you preorder Fossil Future you'll get:

Access to my exclusive live event "How to Talk to Anyone About Climate Change"
My 10-page "Alex Notes" book summary
A 6-month premium subscription to my Energy Talking Points Substack ($50 value)

To claim these bonuses just send your receipt to assistant@alexepstein.com.

For those considering bulk purchases: if you commit to making a bulk purchase (100 or more) of Fossil Future, I'll send you a signed bookplate for every book. Just email assistant@alexepstein.com subject Bulk Orders with the number of books you want, and we’ll connect you with a low-cost bulk seller.

My #1 fear about Fossil Future is that once it launches with a huge media campaign *and* blows new readers away, there will be a big shortage that will be hard to remedy given the supply chain crisis.

You can help prevent a shortage by preordering. Thanks for considering this!

—Alex Epstein

PS I hope you’re excited by some of the section titles of Fossil Future. As I mentioned earlier, over the next two months I’ll be publicly sharing some sections of Fossil Future before the release date. Let me know in the comments which sections you want me to release.

“Energy Talking Points by Alex Epstein” is my free Substack newsletter designed to give as many people as possible access to concise, powerful, well-referenced talking points on the latest energy, environmental, and climate issues from a pro-human, pro-energy perspective.

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